MENA Newswire, ABU DHABI: The World Bank has forecast that the United Arab Emirates economy will grow by 5 percent in 2026 and 5.1 percent in 2027, positioning the country among the fastest growing economies in the Middle East and well above the projected global average. The outlook was published in the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report, which assesses medium term trends across advanced, emerging, and developing economies.
According to the report, the UAE’s growth trajectory reflects sustained momentum in non oil sectors, stable macroeconomic conditions, and continued public and private investment. The World Bank projects global economic growth to remain below pre pandemic averages over the same period, making the UAE’s outlook notable amid broader international headwinds affecting trade, investment, and productivity growth.
Economic expansion in the UAE has been increasingly driven by non hydrocarbon activity, including tourism, transportation, logistics, financial services, construction, and technology related industries. Government data over recent years has shown non oil sectors accounting for the majority of real GDP growth, a trend that the World Bank expects to continue through 2027. The report notes that diversification efforts have helped reduce exposure to oil price volatility while supporting employment and domestic demand.
Public investment and regulatory reforms have also played a role in sustaining growth. The UAE has continued to implement policies aimed at attracting foreign direct investment, supporting private sector participation, and enhancing the ease of doing business. Large scale infrastructure projects, along with ongoing expansion in aviation, ports, and digital infrastructure, are cited as contributing factors to medium term economic performance.
Midyear outlook highlights regional comparison
Within the Gulf Cooperation Council, the World Bank expects growth to strengthen as oil production normalizes and non oil sectors expand. The UAE is projected to outperform the regional average, reflecting its diversified economic base and role as a regional trade and financial hub. The report places the country’s expected growth well above that of many emerging markets facing tighter financial conditions and slower external demand.
At the regional level, growth across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region is forecast to improve gradually over the next two years. The World Bank attributes this to easing inflation in some economies, recovering tourism flows, and continued reform efforts in select countries. However, the report also notes that growth across the region remains uneven, with performance varying widely by country.
Globally, the World Bank projects economic growth of around the mid two percent range in 2026 and 2027, constrained by weak investment, slower productivity gains, and ongoing policy uncertainty. Advanced economies are expected to grow more slowly than emerging markets, while low income countries continue to face challenges linked to debt levels and limited fiscal space. Against this backdrop, the UAE’s projected growth stands out as relatively strong and stable.
Trade and services remain central to the UAE’s economic outlook. The country’s position as a logistics and re export hub has supported resilience in external trade, while growth in travel and tourism has remained robust. International visitor numbers have continued to rise, contributing to activity in hospitality, retail, and related services. The World Bank report notes that services led growth has become an increasingly important feature of the UAE economy.
Structural strengths and near term outlook
The World Bank highlights structural factors supporting the UAE’s outlook, including a stable financial system, strong fiscal buffers, and continued investment in human capital and technology. These factors are expected to help sustain growth even as global conditions remain challenging. The report also points to the UAE’s efforts to expand renewable energy capacity and advanced industries as part of its longer term development agenda.
Risks to the outlook remain tied primarily to external conditions, including global trade dynamics and financial market volatility. The World Bank emphasizes that maintaining reform momentum and policy stability will be important for sustaining growth over the medium term. Overall, the forecast underscores confidence in the UAE’s economic resilience and its ability to maintain solid growth rates through 2027 based on current conditions and confirmed policy frameworks.